Israel, Hamas and Trump’s Peace Gamble: After the Ceasefire, the Real Battle Begins

 

A Fragile Peace Held by Threads

Hostages Freed, Guns Still Loaded

After two long years of war, the release of 20 Israeli hostages by Hamas — exchanged for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners — brought a fragile sense of relief to Gaza and Israel.

But while the world celebrated the truce, experts warned that getting Hamas to surrender its weapons would be the true test of peace.

The Trump Plan: A Peace Blueprint or Political Mirage?

Donald Trump’s 20-point “Peace 2025 Plan” calls for an international security force, reconstruction of Gaza, and a temporary Palestinian governing council overseen by an international board.

On paper, it reads like a roadmap to stability.

In practice, diplomats say, it looks like a minefield of competing agendas, delayed promises, and fragile alliances.

Who Rules Gaza After the War?

Even during the ceasefire talks, negotiators stumbled over one impossible question — who will govern Gaza “the day after”?

The debate became so tangled that it was cut out of the ceasefire deal and postponed for a “Phase 2” round of talks.

Trump’s Grand Stage in Egypt

At Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, President Trump gathered world leaders alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to launch the new peace phase.

Standing before a banner reading “Peace in the Middle East — Peace 2025”, Trump declared,

“Phase 2 has started. Tremendous progress. Everyone said it’s not possible. And it’s going to happen.”

But even amid the applause, uncertainty loomed — no one knew when or where the next round of talks would actually begin.

The Core Problem: Hamas and the Gun

Analysts say the crux of the crisis remains the same — Hamas refuses to disarm.

“Hamas was founded on the idea of armed resistance,” said Akram Atallah, a Palestinian columnist from Gaza.

“Disarmament means dismantling its identity.”

Dark Clouds Over Hope

While there’s a temporary mood of optimism after years of bloodshed, Atallah warned that “dark clouds” remain on the horizon.

“It feels good right now,” he said, “but I can see dark clouds in the distance — and I don’t know what they’re carrying.”

Analysts Predict a Long Stalemate

Israeli officials fear the talks could drag on indefinitely, creating a new status quo: Hamas still armed, Israeli forces still occupying parts of Gaza.

“If there’s one terrorist attack,” warned former Mossad official Zohar Palti, “after a minute, it’s over.”

The ceasefire could collapse overnight with a single provocation.

The Regional Pressure Game

Mediators from Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt now face the task of restraining Hamas and maintaining the fragile truce.

“If Hamas provokes again, everything will fall apart,” said Nimrod Novik, a former Israeli envoy.

The region, he noted, has seen too many “temporary truces” turn into renewed wars.

Who Governs Gaza Now?

Trump’s plan suggests an international stabilization force will eventually control Gaza — but no country has yet committed troops or funding.

The Palestinian Authority, which once governed Gaza, remains largely excluded pending “reforms,” leaving a vacuum no one seems ready to fill.

Even Israeli lawmakers admit the plan depends on miracles.

“If you don’t want Israel there, you know what you have to do,” said Boaz Bismuth, a Netanyahu ally. “It’s easy.”

But as one Israeli security analyst dryly observed — “Saying so doesn’t make it so.”

A Fragile Peace Held by Threads

Hamas, insiders say, is willing to cooperate on rebuilding Gaza but refuses to “evaporate.”

“It wants quiet and stability,” said Ibrahim al-Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst close to the group.

Meanwhile, Trump’s allies cling to optimism, calling the release of hostages a “miracle start.”

Yet as both sides quietly reload their weapons, the region knows that peace in the Middle East — like so many times before — may prove easier to announce than to achieve.