The world is at risk of nuclear explosions

Researchers are issuing a strong warning that the risk of a nuclear explosion in the world has risen to an unprecedented level. As the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) points out, nuclear-armed powers are taking weapons out of their stockpiles and directing them towards offensive systems, and the role of weapons of mass destruction in global politics is increasing.

The breakdown of international agreements and intensifying competition among major powers are the main reasons for this.

Globally, there are an estimated 12,187 nuclear warheads, with about 9,745 of them held as reserves for potential use. Although there has been a slight decrease in these numbers compared to last year, the director of the institute, Karim Hagag, states that these numbers are expected to rise again in the coming years due to the slowed pace of old weapon destruction and the increased pace of new nuclear weapon deployment. He further emphasizes that while the total number of nuclear weapons is decreasing, the nuclear risk is increasing.

The United States and Russia own 83 percent of the world's total nuclear weapons stockpile. Each of these two countries possesses more than 5,000 warheads, and they are currently implementing programs to modernize their nuclear arsenals. However, the American modernization program has faced financial and planning issues, while Russia is confronting numerous challenges such as economic sanctions imposed due to the war in Ukraine, as well as recent failures in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.

It is reported that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country due to global geopolitical competition. It is estimated that they currently possess about 620 warheads, and by 2030, China could have a number of intercontinental ballistic missiles close to the amount held by the United States and Russia. However, even if their warhead count grows to 1,000, it would still only be equivalent to about a quarter of the American or Russian stockpiles.

Looking at the European region, France and Britain maintain 290 and 225 nuclear warheads respectively. French President Emmanuel Macron ordered an increase in his country's nuclear stockpile last March, and Britain's nuclear arsenal is also expected to grow following a review conducted in 2021.

Within the Asian region, India has slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal to 190, and although Pakistan has maintained its number of weapons at a stable level of 170, SIPRI indicates that it is accumulating fissile material with the aim of expanding it in the coming decade. Furthermore, it is reported that North Korea is rapidly increasing its number of nuclear warheads to 60, and even Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge its nuclear capability, is currently modernizing its arsenal of about 90 weapons.