The ceasefire between the United States and Iran is at risk of collapse, with Iran launching an attack on the United Arab Emirates for the first time since the ceasefire was declared about a month ago. On Monday, May 4, Iran carried out this attack using 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones.
As confirmed by the UAE's air defense systems and the Ministry of Defense, all these threats were successfully neutralized. However, three individuals were injured in a fire in Fujairah, and they have been confirmed as Indian nationals by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the country's Ministry of External Affairs. The National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) has issued warnings to the public regarding the ongoing aerial threats.The US Central Command has launched an operation named "Project Freedom" to rescue approximately 22,500 sailors on 1,550 ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, deploying over 100 military aircraft and about 15,000 troops. According to Axios, US President Donald Trump will soon order a resumption of military action if diplomatic efforts fail. A Maersk ship, under US protection, has successfully exited the strait, and the US Navy has destroyed 6 small boats belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). President Trump has issued a stern warning that Iranian forces will be wiped off the face of the earth if American ships are targeted. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Kane have stated that although the ceasefire is still in effect, the adversary should not perceive this as weakness, and their forces are ready to resume major combat operations if necessary.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has warned that a new strategic reality is emerging in the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian military official, commenting on the attack on the UAE, stated that it was not pre-planned but rather a result of America's attempts to illegally move ships through the strait. Meanwhile, Iranian media, including Tasnim News Agency, accuse US forces of attacking two civilian cargo boats traveling from Khasab, Oman, towards Iran, resulting in the deaths of five civilians. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that discussions are ongoing with Pakistan's mediation, urging against a military solution, and calling "Project Freedom" a failed project.
As a security measure, the UAE Ministry of Education has shifted all schools across the country to online learning from May 5 until Friday, May 8, and the Private Education Authority in Sharjah has followed suit from May 5 to May 7. However, Dubai's Global Village has confirmed it remains open as usual. Considering this situation, the US State Department has issued a Level 3 travel advisory urging its citizens to reconsider travel to the UAE, and non-essential staff have been evacuated from the US Embassy in Abu Dhabi and the Consulate General in Dubai, with visa services suspended. Appreciating the support from the international community, UAE Presidential Advisor Dr. Anwar Gargash stated that Iran is the aggressor escalating the regional crisis.
Condemning the Iranian attack, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Zakir Ghobash (who carried a message from Bahrain's Speaker of the Council of Representatives Ahmed bin Salman Al Musallam), Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides have all expressed their support to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan via telephone. At a press conference in Yerevan, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the attack was unacceptable and that he is scheduled to hold discussions with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the British Prime Minister, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha have also strongly condemned the attack, emphasizing the need for a diplomatic solution.
Amidst this dual sanctions crisis, Brent crude oil prices have risen by 5.8% to $114.44 per barrel, and Murban crude oil prices have increased to $107.30. Oil prices have surged by 60% since mid-February, yet the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices in the American stock market have shown some growth. However, the UK's FTSE 100 index has fallen by 1% due to a $400 million fraud reducing HSBC Bank's profit, and Asian stock markets have also declined. Japan's Taiyo Oil company's first shipment of crude oil imported from Russia under the Sakhalin-2 project has reached the Imabari coast. Meanwhile, in the Strait of Hormuz, a fire following an explosion on the South Korean cargo ship HMM Namu saw the 24-member crew, including 6 South Koreans, survive. With 26 other South Korean ships stranded there, South Korea is considering participating in American operations. Despite all these conflicts, FIFA President Gianni Infantino has invited the Iranian Football Federation to Zurich before May 20 to discuss participation in the World Cup football tournament, which will be held from June 11 to July 19, centered in the US, Canada, and Mexico.