Polls reveal that Trump will lose the November midterm election even if war shows are held.

Although President Trump tried to cover up the Epstein allegations against him with the Iran war, the latest 'The Economist' magazine, based on surveys, has revealed that in the face of an unnecessary war, unexpected economic problems, and the exacerbation of minority issues, the Republican Party represented by President Trump will suffer a severe defeat in history in the midterm elections held in America next November. When Donald Trump said in 2024 that Hispanics loved him, it was not just a boast.

In that year, he managed to win 48 percent of the Latin American votes, which was higher than any previous Republican presidential candidate. Many Hispanics, suffering from inflation, blamed Joe Biden for it, and they also expressed strong disapproval of the open border policies for immigrants from poor countries. Many Latinos who believed Trump's promises to reduce the cost of living and deport immigrant criminals are now deeply regretting their decision.

Instead of controlling prices, Trump has further raised commodity prices due to the imposition of tariffs and the unnecessary war situation with Iran. Moreover, instead of focusing solely on deporting criminals and gang members, his officials are even arresting ordinary elderly people and park workers. Builders in Texas are facing a severe crisis because Latin bricklayers and electricians are afraid to report to work. In a context where federal agents raid private properties without court warrants, it is not surprising that Hispanics feel severely threatened by masked armed individuals, and this is why Trump's popularity among them has fallen to 22 percent.

Due to this situation, retaining control of Congress in the upcoming November midterm elections will be a severe challenge for Republicans. There is a risk that electoral map changes made in states like Texas, assuming continued support from Latinos, could backfire on them. If a competitive election is held nationwide, Hispanic votes could change the outcome in dozens of seats. According to the latest poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov, 43 percent of Latinos support Democratic candidates, while only 27 percent support Republican candidates. Over the past six months, the probability of the Democratic Party gaining control of the House of Representatives has increased from 69 percent to 85 percent, and the probability of gaining control of the Senate, where elections are held for only one-third of the seats, has also increased from 29 percent to 47 percent.

The loss of support from Latinos is not the only reason for the Republicans facing a severe defeat. Many other Americans are frustrated with rising commodity prices and the behavior of immigration officials who act like an illegal army. Looking at political history, it appears that the political consequences of a party marginalizing an entire ethnic group last for a long time. Although Republican presidential candidates managed to win California in nine out of ten instances between 1952 and 1988, they have never been able to win that state since a Republican governor supported an anti-immigrant referendum in 1994.

Recognizing the existing problem, the current administration is trying to somewhat relax its strict stance, examples of which include making changes in the leadership of the Department of Homeland Security and removing extremist language from immigration officer recruitment advertisements, bringing them to a more moderate tone. Although the White House has advised Republicans in Congress to focus only on removing criminals instead of mass deportations, many Latinos still live in constant fear of being separated from their families as there has been no significant change in fundamental policies. In this context, a very favorable situation has been created for the Democratic Party, and if Democrats establish themselves as the party that protects economic stability and the rule of law instead of arbitrary tariffs and racist harassment, it will be a great attraction for frustrated Hispanics as well as all Americans.

(Source: The Economist)