Who Will Be the Next Pope? A Divided Vote Could Elevate a Quiet Cardinal from Sri Lanka

With the death of Pope Francis, the first Jesuit and first Latin American pontiff, the Catholic Church faces another moment of historic choice. As 119 cardinal-electors prepare to enter the Sistine Chapel, speculation swirls over who might emerge as the next pope — a decision that could shape the direction of the Church for decades to come.

Among the frontrunners are names well known within Vatican circles: Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, a contender for years, who could become the first Black pope in modern history; Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, a progressive seen as a "continuity" candidate; and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, often mentioned as a potential first Asian pope with global appeal.

Yet amid these high-profile contenders, attention is quietly turning to an unexpected name: Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka.

At 77, Cardinal   Ranjith is not the youngest in the college, and his name rarely features in papal betting odds. But in a conclave where ideological divisions run deep — between conservatives and progressives, between traditionalists and reformers — his relatively low profile may be his greatest strength.

Cardinal Ranjith is a figure of careful balance. A native of Sri Lanka, he embodies the global South's growing influence in Catholicism, where the faith continues to grow rapidly even as it declines in parts of Europe. He is known for his liturgical conservatism and firm stances on doctrine, which may appeal to more traditional cardinals. Yet he has also built a reputation for diplomacy and bridge-building — particularly valuable in a conclave that may deadlock over more polarising candidates.

“Ranjith could be a compromise figure,” said a senior Vatican analyst. “He doesn’t come with the political baggage of some of the frontrunners. In a divided conclave, that neutrality might prove decisive.”

His time as Archbishop of Colombo saw him leading post-civil war reconciliation efforts in Sri Lanka, and his years of service in the Vatican’s Congregation for Divine Worship cemented his loyalty to Rome. He’s not viewed as a reformer in the Francis mould, but neither is he part of the hardline traditionalist camp.

While a Ranjith papacy would be a surprise, it would not be without precedent. Jorge Mario Bergoglio was also a long-shot candidate before emerging as Pope Francis in 2013 — largely as a result of factional deadlock among the cardinals. “Sometimes it’s not the frontrunners who win,” said one cardinal anonymously. “Sometimes it’s the man everyone can live with.”

If elected, Cardinal Ranjith would be the first Sri Lankan pope and only the second Asian in Church history to hold the position — a powerful symbol of Catholicism’s shift away from its European centre.

For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. The cardinals will enter the conclave with their own convictions, alliances, and hopes. But once the doors close, anything can happen.