Modi’s Visit to Sri Lanka: A Diplomatic Power Play in the Shadow of China

 

Minister Narendra Modi’s  fourth visit to Sri Lanka, official narratives herald it as a symbol of deepening Indo-Lanka relations. But beneath the warm diplomatic optics lies a strategic recalibration—one that reflects India's ambitions to cement its regional dominance while quietly nudging Sri Lanka away from Beijing’s orbit.

While the optics may include temple visits, joint statements, and economic pledges, the undercurrents are unmistakably geopolitical. With China scaling back its involvement and the U.S. retreating from Indo-Pacific centrality, India is stepping into the vacuum with precision diplomacy and well-timed influence.

The Energy Gambit

One of the most pivotal proposals on the table is a cross-border India-Sri Lanka power grid connectivity project. Framed as a move toward regional energy security, the project also represents India’s attempt to root itself in the infrastructure of Sri Lanka—quite literally.
If this grid comes to life, Sri Lanka’s dependency on Indian energy could turn into strategic leverage for New Delhi. It also gives India a stabilizing role in Sri Lanka’s power sector, which is increasingly politicized and vulnerable.

A Shift in the Security Landscape

With the U.S. taking a step back under isolationist trade and defense policies, India senses opportunity. The proposed Indo-Lanka Defence Agreement is a watershed. It's not just about maritime security—it’s about building strategic interdependence.
For India, this is more than symbolic. It is a foothold in an island nation that sits at the heart of the Indian Ocean—an area Beijing has long viewed as part of its Belt and Road chessboard.

A Surprising Political Turn

Perhaps the most telling sign of India’s rising influence is the political about-face from Sri Lanka’s current leadership. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his neo-leftist government, once skeptical of Indian intentions, have now pivoted toward collaboration.
This suggests a shift not just in foreign policy but in political ideology. The nationalist, anti-interventionist sentiment of the past is giving way to a pragmatic, even eager, alignment with India—at least for now.

India’s Digital Soft Power

India’s ambition doesn’t stop at ports and power grids. It is also eyeing Sri Lanka’s digital future. From biometric ID systems to fintech partnerships, New Delhi is positioning itself as a tech mentor—offering alternatives to Chinese AI surveillance models.
This “digital diplomacy” offers India a way to entrench itself in everyday governance in Sri Lanka—silently, but deeply.

China’s Diminished Presence… For Now

Beijing’s golden days in Colombo—seen during the Rajapaksa and Sirisena eras—are dimming. Massive loans, white elephant projects, and the Hambantota port lease have left scars. Now, with India playing a more coordinated game, China appears reactionary rather than proactive.
A high-level Chinese visit may be looming, but with Sri Lanka’s new administration prioritizing transparency and democratic partnerships, it may be too late for China to recapture the narrative.

Final Thought:

Modi’s visit is more than ceremonial. It’s a signal—a declaration that India is no longer content with being a regional big brother. It wants to be the indispensable partner, the trusted neighbor, and, subtly, the gatekeeper to Sri Lanka’s future. And while Beijing watches and Washington recalibrates, Colombo may find itself once again at the center of a geopolitical tug-of-war—but this time, with a new set of rules and players