Lower Rice Harvest Expected in Sri Lanka’s Maha Season

Sri Lanka’s main (Maha) season rice harvest is projected to decline, with an estimated production of 2.56 million metric tonnes. This projection is based on cultivation data up to December 2024, including re-cultivation efforts following crop damage, according to the Department of Agriculture.

Reduced Cultivation and Flood Damage

Farmers have cultivated approximately 806,453 hectares, covering 93 percent of the initial target of 868,427 hectares. However, the estimated gross harvesting area stands at only 717,847 hectares, indicating significant losses.

Floods have played a major role in reducing the expected harvest. The second round of flooding affected around 79,115 hectares, causing irreparable damage to 25,532 hectares of crops. Earlier, in October, the first wave of floods impacted 124,447 hectares of young rice plants. Despite re-cultivation efforts, the overall yield remains below expectations.

Impact of Input Costs and Fertilizer Subsidies

The government provided fertilizer subsidies covering approximately 739,000 hectares. However, many farmers reported increased expenses on seed paddy, weedicides, and the initial round of fertilizer, leading to higher production costs.

High Farmgate Prices and Market Conditions

State agencies have set a purchase price of 120 rupees per kilogram for Nadu rice, making it one of the highest farmgate prices in Asia. Comparatively, farmgate prices in Thailand range from 75 to 85 rupees per kilogram, while in Vietnam, prices stand around 94 rupees per kilogram.

Due to local price spikes in November and December 2024, Sri Lanka has already imported rice, despite imposing a 65 rupees per kilogram tax (approximately 220 dollars per tonne) on imports.

Challenges and Government Policies

Farmers continue to face difficulties due to wild elephant intrusions, damaging crops and further reducing output. Based on current projections, the Maha season harvest is likely to be the lowest since 2021/2022, when the country suffered a drastic drop in production due to a fertilizer ban.

Additionally, price controls imposed by the Consumer Affairs Authority (CAA) on red rice have led to shortages, with consumers struggling to find supplies in markets. Past government interventions in price control measures have led to shortages of essential commodities, diminishing public confidence in economic policies.

Economic Recovery and Agricultural Policies

Sri Lanka is still recovering from its recent economic downturn, triggered by monetary mismanagement that resulted in currency depreciation and food inflation. Although poultry prices have stabilized, and tourism is improving, food demand remains high.

The country’s policies on self-sufficiency (autarky) continue to restrict the import of maize, a crucial ingredient in poultry feed, leading to increased production costs. Meanwhile, coconut production has also witnessed a decline, though market availability remains stable due to minimal intervention from regulatory authorities.

Lowest Harvest 
The 2024/2025 Maha season rice harvest in Sri Lanka is set to be one of the lowest in recent years, influenced by adverse weather conditions, rising input costs, and policy interventions. While high farmgate prices offer some relief to farmers, consumers continue to bear the brunt of escalating food prices. As the nation navigates economic recovery, strategic policy adjustments will be essential to ensure food security and market stability in the future.