A warning about how the El Niño condition will worsen in the future

Although significant rainfall can be expected in the upcoming October, there is a risk of water sources on the island drying up due to decreased rainfall and increased temperatures by the first quarter of next year, says Mr. A.L.K. Wijemannage, Director General of the Department of Meteorology.

He expressed these views while participating in a discussion program organized at the University of Kelaniya under the theme "The Future of the Country with El Niño and La Niña". The impacts on Sri Lanka due to climate changes like El Niño and La Niña were extensively discussed here.

The Director General pointed out that the combination of both El Niño and La Niña phenomena is known as the "El Niño Southern Oscillation," explaining that it is a natural oscillation that causes an El Niño condition at one extreme, a normal condition in the middle, and a La Niña condition at the other extreme. He also mentioned that this natural phenomenon, which constantly occurs worldwide, is not a new situation, and while normal storms are limited to a few days and monsoon winds to a few months, an El Niño condition can last from 8 to 10 months or even more than a year.

It was emphasized here that the simultaneous occurrence of an El Niño condition with a positive IOD condition can significantly change Sri Lanka's rainfall pattern, and the presence of a negative IOD condition leads to increased rainfall. Mr. Wijemannage further stated that if El Niño begins in June, its impact on the Southwest Monsoon would be limited, but since future rainfall is determined by the overall behavior of all three phenomena—El Niño, IOD, and MJO—final conclusions about the weather cannot be drawn based on only one phenomenon.

A group of university students, including Mr. Chathura Liyanarachchi, Director of Preparedness and Planning at the Disaster Management Centre, and Dr. Manoj Jinadasa, participated in this program organized jointly by the Department of Geography, the Geographical Society, the Social Science Research Centre, and the Communication and Media Unit of the University of Kelaniya.