Modi Tilts Toward Beijing as Trump’s Tariffs Bite

Flights and Fertilizer Signal 

After U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, widely seen as retaliation for discounted Russian oil purchases, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is quietly revisiting his China strategy. Sources say direct flights between India and China, halted since 2020, could resume next month. The move may coincide with Modi’s first visit to China in seven years for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Beijing, also under strain from Trump’s trade war, has eased urea export curbs to India, signaling an openness to reset relations.

Pragmatism Over Alignment

India has reinstated tourist visas for Chinese nationals, and renewed fertilizer trade is being interpreted as a rare economic olive branch from Beijing. The approach appears less about formal alliances and more about creating leverage. With pressure from Washington intensifying, Modi is broadening India’s options, signaling that when one door shuts, another can be opened elsewhere.

Tariffs Push India Closer to BRICS

Trump’s tariff push may be accelerating India’s integration into the BRICS sphere. Modi has invited Vladimir Putin to visit, advanced trade talks with Brazil’s Mercosur bloc, and challenged Trump’s narrative on Pakistan. A warming China–India dynamic could have far-reaching implications, from joint green tech initiatives to strengthened supply chains. As diplomatic temperatures shift, global capital may follow.