Will the War in Ukraine Continue?

Despite hopes for a breakthrough, the fate of the much‑anticipated Ukraine peace talks remains uncertain after both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump opted not to attend a summit in Istanbul. Their absence casts a shadow over negotiations that Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to hold Thursday—the first direct, face‑to‑face talks since March 2022.

Standoff on Leadership Attendance

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly offered to meet Putin in Turkey. “I have openly said that I am ready for a meeting,” Zelensky wrote on X, adding that without Putin’s presence, “it is the final point that he does not want to end the war.” Yet when Russia published its delegation list late Wednesday, it named senior envoys—Sergei Lavrov’s deputies, defence ministry officials, and military intelligence chiefs—but not Putin himself. Within hours, former U.S. President Donald Trump, whose return to the White House has reshaped diplomatic dynamics, announced he would skip the talks if Putin was absent, though senior envoys Keith Kellogg and Steve Witkoff will represent Washington.

What’s at Stake

For Sri Lanka – still recovering from its own economic crisis and navigating a complex relationship with both East and West – a Ukrainian peace deal would carry broader implications. A ceasefire could stabilize global grain markets, easing food‑price pressures that have strained household budgets here. It might also unlock frozen Ukrainian agricultural exports, helping lower rice and wheat costs in local markets.

On the Ground in Istanbul

Despite the leadership vacuum, Ukraine and Russia’s delegations are due to meet at Istanbul’s historic Dolmabahçe Palace on Thursday. Kyiv insists only Putin can deliver binding commitments, while Moscow demands acceptance of its maximalist terms—effectively curbing Ukraine’s sovereignty. That impasse has fueled three more years of grinding conflict, with over a million casualties and mass displacement.

Looking Ahead

Analysts caution that face‑to‑face talks between lower‑level officials may produce only marginal progress. If neither president appears, the window for a genuine truce narrows. For Sri Lankan policymakers and citizens—especially those with family in Europe or business ties to grain markets—this summit is a reminder: prolonged war in Ukraine continues to ripple across global stability and food security, even here in Colombo.