Why Cardinal Pietro Parolin is Ahead in the Race for the Papacy

With the papal conclave set to begin on May 7, 2025, following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, global attention has turned to the College of Cardinals and the discreet deliberations that will elect the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church. While the process remains cloaked in centuries-old secrecy, one name consistently rises above the rest: Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State.

A Diplomat Pope?

Cardinal Parolin, 69, is regarded by many Vatican watchers as the frontrunner. As Secretary of State, he holds the second most influential position in the Church, overseeing diplomacy, statecraft, and day-to-day operations of the Holy See.

What gives Parolin the edge is his unique blend of doctrinal moderation and administrative stability. Often described as a pragmatic centrist, he is seen as a figure who can bridge internal Church divisions while guiding it through complex geopolitical terrain.

“Parolin brings continuity without controversy,” says a Vatican analyst. “He’s trusted by both conservatives and progressives, and he knows how the machine runs.”

Strengths That Set Him Apart

Global Diplomatic Experience: Parolin has represented the Holy See in politically sensitive environments like Venezuela and Vietnam, earning respect for his measured yet firm approach.

Continuity with Francis’s Vision: Though not as populist or outwardly radical as Pope Francis, Parolin shares much of his predecessor’s concern for the poor, the marginalized, and the environment — values that resonate with a global Church.

Calm Under Pressure: As Europe faces ongoing instability and the Catholic Church grapples with declining influence in the West, Parolin is seen as a steady hand capable of maintaining both tradition and relevance.

The Other Contenders

Despite Parolin’s frontrunner status, the field is not without serious contenders

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): Often called the "Asian Francis," Tagle is a charismatic and progressive voice from the Global South. His candidacy reflects the Church's shifting demographic center, but some question whether the College is ready for a non-European pope once again.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy): Known for his work on peace and interfaith dialogue, Zuppi could appeal to reform-minded cardinals but lacks Parolin’s international stature.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo): A strong advocate for justice and ecology, Ambongo represents the rapidly growing African Church. His selection would be historic, but might face resistance from traditional blocs.

Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary): A conservative favorite, Erdő is a sharp canon lawyer aligned with more traditionalist factions. His appeal is regional and doctrinal, though perhaps too polarizing for a Church seeking unity.

Conclave Dynamics Favor Parolin

With 133 cardinal-electors, of whom 108 were appointed by Pope Francis, the conclave is likely to lean toward a continuity candidate — someone who can protect Francis’s reforms without igniting factional rifts

Cardinal Parolin, by virtue of his Vatican experience and diplomatic credentials, appears to be a consensus choice. His election would signal stability, a return to European leadership, and a reaffirmation of Vatican diplomacy in global affairs.

“He’s the quiet power broker,” says a senior cleric close to the Roman Curia. “He may not be the most media-savvy, but inside the Vatican walls, everyone knows his capabilities.”

The Verdict: A Safe, Strategic Choice

As speculation mounts and cardinals prepare for their solemn duty inside the Sistine Chapel, all signs suggest that Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the man to beat. His blend of discretion, experience, and doctrinal balance makes him an appealing candidate in a Church that must navigate modernity without losing its identity.

While surprises are always possible — and dark horses like Cardinal Tagle remain in play — the odds-on favorite, for now, wears Italian red.