Could China and Vietnam Join Hands in a New Tariff War?

As China’s President Xi Jinping wrapped up his charm offensive across Southeast Asia, a quiet but significant undercurrent emerged from his visit to Vietnam: the possibility of an informal alliance—or at least strategic alignment—between China and Vietnam in the face of intensifying trade tensions with the United States.

While Xi stopped short of naming the U.S. directly, his rhetoric in Hanoi sent a clear message. Calling for opposition to “unilateral bullying” and for the defense of “global free trade,” Xi struck a chord with Vietnamese leaders whose country narrowly escaped harsh U.S. tariffs just days before his arrival.

A Calculated Message

Xi’s visit to Hanoi was laced with symbolism and strategy. From the red carpet welcome to the wreath-laying ceremony at the Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum, Xi emphasized historical camaraderie while steering the focus toward contemporary concerns: trade, supply chain resilience, and geopolitical balance.

Meeting with Vietnam’s Communist Party Secretary-General To Lam, Xi emphasized the need to "jointly oppose unilateral bullying," a phrase that seemed designed to echo both countries’ frustrations with U.S. economic pressure. According to Chinese state media, the two sides agreed to uphold stability in global trade and supply chains—language that, while vague, hints at a mutual interest in resisting U.S. trade policy shifts.

Stephen Olson, a former U.S. trade negotiator, sees Xi’s approach as a masterclass in diplomatic positioning. “While Trump seems determined to blow up the trade system,” Olson said, “Xi is positioning China as the defender of rules-based trade, while painting the U.S. as a reckless rogue nation.”

Vietnam’s Delicate Balancing Act

But does this signal the beginning of a new economic bloc led by China, with Vietnam as a willing partner? Not quite.

Vietnam, despite recent tariff threats from Washington, remains heavily reliant on U.S. trade and investment. Experts, including Susannah Patton of Australia’s Lowy Institute, warn that Hanoi will tread carefully. “Vietnam will be cautious to manage the perception that it is colluding with China against the United States,” Patton said. “The U.S. is too important a partner to put aside.”

Indeed, Vietnam’s challenge is a familiar one for many Southeast Asian countries—balancing their economic interdependence with China against their strategic and commercial ties with the United States. China may be a key supplier and market, but the U.S. remains a crucial export destination and security partner.

A Tactical Realignment, Not an Alliance

Xi’s Southeast Asia tour comes at a moment of heightened trade tensions, with the U.S. slapping a staggering 145% tariff on most Chinese imports, and Beijing responding with 125% duties on American goods. Against this backdrop, Southeast Asia represents a battleground not just for trade, but for global influence.

While it’s unlikely that Vietnam will publicly align itself with China against the U.S., the optics of the visit and the rhetoric exchanged suggest a quiet recalibration. Xi’s message—that China is the stable, reliable partner in a world of growing uncertainty—may resonate, especially if U.S. trade threats continue to loom.

As Xi moves on to Malaysia and Cambodia—two nations also central to his Belt and Road ambitions—the broader goal becomes clear: to cast China as the steady hand in a volatile world, and the U.S. as the disruptor.

Whether Vietnam joins China in any formal resistance to U.S. tariffs remains to be seen. But the foundations of a tactical, if temporary, alignment are already being laid—one handshake and trade deal at a time.