Russia is defeated in the Ukrainian war

According to the current situation in 2026, international analyses indicate that the war between Russia and Ukraine is strategically failing for Russia, and Ukraine has achieved only a partial victory. Although Ukraine has agreed to maintain the current front lines for about two years, Russia shows no willingness for peace.

Security expert Nico Lange also points out that political, economic sanctions, and military pressure are still essential to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

It was previously assumed that the war would end in 2025, based on the belief that China and America would jointly pressure Russia. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski also stated in September 2024 that China is the only country that can influence Russia to stop the fighting, as Russia is heavily dependent on China. Although a journalist thought that Donald Trump, after coming to power in 2025, would control Russia through a trade agreement with Xi Jinping, this has proven to be a misunderstanding due to Trump's policies and Beijing's current stance. During a discussion in July 2025 between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and EU diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas, it was revealed that China believes Putin must win for Russia's stability. China has decided that this situation is advantageous for them, as America's preoccupation in Ukraine reduces Western military influence on China in the Pacific and Taiwan regions.

However, according to the current situation in 2026, it is clear that Russia has no possibility of winning this war. The advance of Russian forces has been hampered, and they have retreated slightly from some fronts. Although the widespread use of drones prevents either side from making significant advances, Ukraine is heavily attacking Russian supply lines hundreds of kilometers away through its own drone industry. Additionally, Russia is facing a severe crisis in recruiting new soldiers, and if it is forced to declare compulsory military service, it will severely impact Vladimir Putin's popularity. Russia, which occupied one-third of Ukraine in 2022, currently controls only about 19 percent of the total territory, including Crimea and Donbas. Although Putin's current goal is to capture the entire Donbas region, it is estimated that it will take at least another two years to seize the remaining 30 percent of the Donetsk region.

Russia has also suffered a geopolitical defeat in this war due to the breakdown of relations with Europe, especially Berlin, and its transformation into an economically dependent state of China. Moreover, there is intense hatred towards Russia within Ukrainian society. However, Ukraine is also facing several internal crises. Many men are hiding or trying to leave the country to avoid military service, and Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov revealed last January that the number of soldiers who deserted the army is around 200,000. This represents 25 percent of the entire military force. According to documents from the Army General Staff Office, 39 percent of new recruits leave the army within the first two months.

Despite these internal setbacks, Ukraine's greatest achievement has been its ability to protect its sovereignty. In its 35-year history, the Ukrainian state has become stronger than ever and is recognized worldwide as an independent nation. Having built one of the world's most powerful armies over the past decade, Ukraine has learned to fight even without NATO membership, producing its own cruise missiles and drones. In the future, by gaining membership in the European Union, Ukraine will have the opportunity to completely free itself from Russian imperialist influence.

Nevertheless, the main tragedy facing Ukraine is demographic decline. The population, which was 41 million in 2021, has now fallen to 29 million, with 10 million having left the country. Another two million live in Russian-controlled territories. This situation could worsen after martial law is lifted, and only a small percentage, about 30 percent, of those who left the country after the war are expected to return. Two years ago, this figure was estimated at 50 percent. Although these refugees with higher education are a resource that can easily adapt to European countries, it is a fatal blow to Ukraine's reconstruction efforts. Furthermore, there is a high probability that this conflict will persist as a long-term, low-intensity drone or psychological war, which will hinder its accession to the European Union and its ability to attract investments.

Doubts also exist in the Western world regarding Ukraine's future political stability. Due to the influence of the former Soviet rule, there is a risk of nationalist and far-right political trends emerging in Ukraine, similar to those seen in Eastern European countries like Hungary and Poland. The democratic or liberal value systems prevalent in Western Europe are not observable in this region, which was part of the Soviet Union. In July 2025, thousands of young people in Kyiv took to the streets in strong protests against President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, opposing a legal amendment introduced to hinder corruption investigations. The president was then forced to withdraw his decision. Even soldiers on the front lines, such as 54-year-old Vova, despite not wanting their children to join the war, continue to fight to change the corrupt conditions in the country and create a better society. Various groups, including LGBTQ+ activists, who believe that enduring the shortcomings of their own country is better than the repression under Russian rule, are working with strong dedication for Ukraine.