Two weeks after American President Donald Trump launched the war against Iran, he is expected to declare his victory soon. However, political commentators point out that even though most of the Iranian navy has been destroyed, missile reserves have been depleted, and many key leaders have been assassinated, the final outcome of the war will be determined by Iran's future actions.
The Washington Post has reported that if Iran continues to retaliate by attacking ships, this war situation will not truly end.Trump's repeatedly stated main political objectives have not yet been achieved, and it has become clear that the old regime still prevails in Iran. Experts believe that Iran still has the ability to turn the situation around, as it has succeeded in creating a severe crisis in the global oil market by disrupting oil transportation routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump is facing intense pressure from members of his own party to end the war and focus on the economy, targeting the upcoming midterm elections in America in November.
The adverse consequences of the series of attacks launched by the United States and Israel are now also evident within America, with fuel prices in the country having risen by about twenty-five percent. Due to factors such as the increase in fertilizer prices for farmers and the deaths of thirteen American soldiers, the President is facing a severe crisis. Since Iran has clearly demonstrated its capability to attack ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, it cannot be definitively said whether the increased oil prices would immediately fall even if America unilaterally stopped the war. Furthermore, these Iranian attacks have posed a serious threat to allied countries in the Persian Gulf region where American military bases are established.
Although President Trump continuously claims to have complete control over the war, analysts point out that a country's threat cannot be eliminated long-term solely through military victory. There is also a fear that this war will further strengthen extremist forces within Iran, accelerating their process of nuclear weapons production. Iran still possesses a stock of approximately 440 kg of refined uranium, which could pose a serious threat to America and its allies, and this has become a key factor in ensuring their strategic security. However, with the destruction of nuclear facilities due to American attacks, there is uncertainty as to whether Iran can access these uranium reserves or use them to produce a nuclear weapon.
According to Brian Katulis, an expert at the Middle East Institute, this war has further complicated the situation, and Iran has historically posed a significant challenge to America's global security. The warnings made by Democratic Party leaders at the time confirm that Trump's cancellation of the nuclear deal established by former President Barack Obama in 2015, in 2017, has been a major cause of the current war situation. With the war, the risk of attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which was previously merely a suspicion, has now become a reality. America's failure to keep this critical 21-mile-wide maritime route open, through which oil is transported worldwide from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, is drawing them further into this war.
Meanwhile, American intelligence agencies have reported that despite two weeks of continuous airstrikes by the United States and Israel, there is no imminent risk of the Iranian government collapsing. According to officials who spoke to Reuters, the Iranian regime still maintains full control over its people, and their power remains very strong.